V-Lab
MERF Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
75.38%
increased by 7.68%
1 Week
75.37%
increased by 7.67%
1 Month
75.34%
increased by 7.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 17% more than negative returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1934 | 19.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3807 | 35.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6379 | 70.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0546 | -3.49*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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