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V-Lab

MERF Inc Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

75.38%

increased by 7.68%

1 Week

75.37%

increased by 7.67%

1 Month

75.34%

increased by 7.64%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MERF Inc AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 17% more than negative returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1934
19.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3807
35.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6379
70.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0546
-3.49***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days