Skip to main content
V-Lab

MERF Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

54.90%

decreased by 7.21%

1 Week

53.68%

decreased by 8.43%

1 Month

49.70%

decreased by 12.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MERF Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4682
2.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2074
5.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7539
21.06***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.3245
0.94
γ2-0.5893
-0.88
γ30.6327
0.83
γ40.0992
0.15
γ5-1.6126
-2.64***
γ62.2538
3.52***
γ7-2.1692
-3.70***
γ81.6171
2.81***
γ9-0.4377
-0.68
γ10-0.2451
-0.52

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days