V-Lab
MERF Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
32.74%
decreased by 3.37%
1 Week
33.05%
decreased by 3.06%
1 Month
34.02%
decreased by 2.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4670 | 2.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.1991 | 5.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7647 | 21.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3176 | 0.92 |
| γ2 | -0.5762 | -0.88 |
| γ3 | 0.6395 | 0.86 |
| γ4 | 0.0423 | 0.06 |
| γ5 | -1.5218 | -2.52** |
| γ6 | 2.1831 | 3.42*** |
| γ7 | -2.1568 | -3.71*** |
| γ8 | 1.6682 | 2.89*** |
| γ9 | -0.4923 | -0.74 |
| γ10 | -0.2379 | -0.47 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4670 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1991 | 5.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7647 | 21.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3176 | 0.92 |
| γ2 | -0.5762 | -0.88 |
| γ3 | 0.6395 | 0.86 |
| γ4 | 0.0423 | 0.06 |
| γ5 | -1.5218 | -2.52** |
| γ6 | 2.1831 | 3.42*** |
| γ7 | -2.1568 | -3.71*** |
| γ8 | 1.6682 | 2.89*** |
| γ9 | -0.4923 | -0.74 |
| γ10 | -0.2379 | -0.47 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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