V-Lab
MERF Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
54.90%
decreased by 7.21%
1 Week
53.68%
decreased by 8.43%
1 Month
49.70%
decreased by 12.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 9, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4682 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2074 | 5.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7539 | 21.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3245 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | -0.5893 | -0.88 |
| γ3 | 0.6327 | 0.83 |
| γ4 | 0.0992 | 0.15 |
| γ5 | -1.6126 | -2.64*** |
| γ6 | 2.2538 | 3.52*** |
| γ7 | -2.1692 | -3.70*** |
| γ8 | 1.6171 | 2.81*** |
| γ9 | -0.4377 | -0.68 |
| γ10 | -0.2451 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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