V-Lab
CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
22.30%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
23.22%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
26.41%
increased by 3.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 87% more than negative returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0993 | 9.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1018 | 16.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9139 | 306.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0473 | -5.03*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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