V-Lab
CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.58%
1 Week
19.79%
1 Month
21.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 22% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1955 | 19.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6486 | 54.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0346 | -3.12*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0077 | 1.92* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0141 | 4.48*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9849 | 293.81*** |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
Other CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities