V-Lab
CAR Mate MFG Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
15.96%
increased by 0.88%
1 Week
16.67%
increased by 1.59%
1 Month
17.74%
increased by 2.66%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1779 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1881 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6504 | 18.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0013 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.0878 | -0.94 |
| γ3 | 0.1801 | 3.44*** |
| γ4 | -0.1323 | -2.27** |
| γ5 | -0.0391 | -0.63 |
| γ6 | 0.2421 | 4.48*** |
| γ7 | -0.2599 | -4.56*** |
| γ8 | 0.0687 | 1.02 |
| γ9 | 0.0703 | 1.31 |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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