East Money Information Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.59%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
53.83%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
54.76%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 317 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 34.6451 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0605 | 59.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 3,525.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9686 | 42.11*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
317 days
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