V-Lab
East Money Information Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
30.08%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
30.64%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
32.76%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 307 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.5889 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 60.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 3,325.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9692 | 42.07*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
307 days
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