Skip to main content
V-Lab

East Money Information Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

30.08%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

30.64%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Month

32.76%

increased by 1.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of East Money Information Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 19, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 307 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

33.5889
6.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0614
60.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
3,325.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9692
42.07***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

307 days