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V-Lab

Abans Finance PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

55.32%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

63.50%

increased by 8.21%

1 Month

69.34%

increased by 14.05%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Abans Finance PLC AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.17) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.3775
32.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2198
21.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4503
49.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.1740
-6.64***

Persistence:

0.670

Half-life:

2 days