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V-Lab

Abans Finance PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

64.58%

increased by 8.87%

1 Week

65.78%

increased by 10.07%

1 Month

66.91%

increased by 11.20%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Abans Finance PLC S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 5, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0517
3.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1490
4.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5693
6.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.1891
-2.17**
γ22.1196
2.73***
γ3-1.5138
-3.63***
γ41.1593
3.21***
γ5-1.0729
-2.64***
γ60.6091
1.52
γ7-0.0098
-0.03
γ8-0.1508
-0.70

Persistence:

0.718

Half-life:

2 days