V-Lab
Abans Finance PLC Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
64.58%
increased by 8.87%
1 Week
65.78%
increased by 10.07%
1 Month
66.91%
increased by 11.20%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0517 | 3.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1490 | 4.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5693 | 6.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.1891 | -2.17** |
| γ2 | 2.1196 | 2.73*** |
| γ3 | -1.5138 | -3.63*** |
| γ4 | 1.1593 | 3.21*** |
| γ5 | -1.0729 | -2.64*** |
| γ6 | 0.6091 | 1.52 |
| γ7 | -0.0098 | -0.03 |
| γ8 | -0.1508 | -0.70 |
Persistence:
0.718
Half-life:
2 days
Other Abans Finance PLC Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities