V-Lab
Visa Chrome Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
50.23%
increased by 1.72%
1 Week
52.77%
increased by 4.26%
1 Month
55.41%
increased by 6.90%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 27, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3011 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2222 | 6.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5303 | 7.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3400 | 1.52 |
| γ2 | -1.0032 | -3.31*** |
| γ3 | 1.5569 | 8.60*** |
| γ4 | -1.3486 | -6.12*** |
| γ5 | 0.5108 | 2.08** |
| γ6 | -0.0686 | -0.31 |
| γ7 | 0.0077 | 0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.0412 | -0.26 |
| γ9 | 0.1670 | 1.48 |
| γ10 | -0.1861 | -2.66*** |
Persistence:
0.752
Half-life:
2 days
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