Visa Chrome Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
47.87%
1 Week
49.51%
1 Month
51.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 27, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 74% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.18 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7496 | 21.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2054 | 31.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6521 | 63.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2320 | -12.12*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1768 | 28.79*** |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
3 days
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