V-Lab
Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
29.42%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
29.71%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
30.59%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.37) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1646 | 21.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0774 | 38.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8819 | 305.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3725 | 9.04*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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