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Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

28.14%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

28.52%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

29.62%

increased by 1.77%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4995
11.30***
αARCH0.0700
7.47***
βGARCH0.8797
53.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0059
4.51***
γ2-0.0067
-4.07***

0.950

Persistence

13d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4995
11.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0700
7.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8797
53.99***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0059
4.51***
γ2-0.0067
-4.07***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days