V-Lab
Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
29.03%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Week
29.32%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
30.16%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5016 | 11.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 7.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8804 | 54.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0060 | 4.50*** |
| γ2 | -0.0068 | -4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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