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Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

26.46%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

27.03%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

28.62%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 3, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4982
11.30***
αARCH0.0698
7.47***
βGARCH0.8800
54.12***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0059
4.50***
γ2-0.0066
-4.06***

0.950

Persistence

13d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4982
11.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0698
7.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8800
54.12***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0059
4.50***
γ2-0.0066
-4.06***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

13 days