V-Lab
Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
27.47%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
27.92%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
29.20%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4995 | 11.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 7.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8812 | 54.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0059 | 4.48*** |
| γ2 | -0.0067 | -4.05*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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