V-Lab
Woolworths Holdings Ltd/South Africa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
27.48%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
27.50%
decreased by 1.55%
1 Month
27.68%
decreased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 1997 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 51% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0717 | 18.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7568 | 61.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0363 | 7.55*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0156 | 2.53** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0102 | 3.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9855 | 253.93*** |
Persistence:
0.847
Half-life:
4 days
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