V-Lab
Ctac NV AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
33.65%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Week
34.51%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
36.40%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.77) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4509 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1330 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7772 | 23.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.7688 | -5.78*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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