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V-Lab

GCM Corp Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

135.60%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

134.23%

decreased by 2.37%

1 Month

130.77%

decreased by 5.83%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of GCM Corp Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 15, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1399
5.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0443
3.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8786
20.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.2631
0.68
γ20.0020
0.00
γ3-0.8810
-2.13**
γ41.2314
3.30***
γ5-0.6974
-1.42
γ6-0.3720
-0.62
γ70.7635
1.89*
γ80.0734
0.19
γ9-1.1499
-2.41**
γ101.2914
2.78***

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days