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V-Lab

Centiel AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

106.82%

increased by 5.55%

1 Week

106.84%

increased by 5.57%

1 Month

106.95%

increased by 5.68%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Centiel AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 394 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 64% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0914
10.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0857
12.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8851
326.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0549
3.89***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

394 days