Centiel AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
106.82%
increased by 5.55%
1 Week
106.84%
increased by 5.57%
1 Month
106.95%
increased by 5.68%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2006 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 394 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 64% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0914 | 10.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 12.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8851 | 326.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0549 | 3.89*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
394 days
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