V-Lab
Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
94.67%
decreased by 2.07%
1 Week
102.69%
increased by 5.95%
1 Month
110.69%
increased by 13.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2919 | 6.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1672 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5828 | 6.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 2.4095 | 1.95* |
| γ2 | -2.4923 | -1.26 |
| γ3 | -0.7522 | -0.52 |
| γ4 | 3.3784 | 2.67*** |
| γ5 | -5.7302 | -4.51*** |
| γ6 | 4.8170 | 2.95*** |
| γ7 | 1.2017 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.750
Half-life:
2 days
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