V-Lab
Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
84.39%
decreased by 16.07%
1 Week
78.55%
decreased by 21.91%
1 Month
66.67%
decreased by 33.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.1615 | 4.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6488 | 9.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.0239 | 0.52 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.3333 | 1.96* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6930 | 4.43*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.822
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1615 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6488 | 9.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0239 | 0.52 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.3333 | 1.96* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6930 | 4.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.822
Half-life:
4 days
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