V-Lab
Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
43.51%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
46.86%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
49.91%
increased by 4.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2020 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1496 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6658 | 10.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0314 | 0.70 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.3065 | 2.02** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6838 | 4.47*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
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