V-Lab
Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
39.62%
1 Week
41.40%
1 Month
46.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4047 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.1465 | 4.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8134 | 24.18*** |
| γleverage | -0.0623 | -0.72 |
| δpower | 1.5737 | 3.00*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4047 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1465 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8134 | 24.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0623 | -0.72 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5737 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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