V-Lab
Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
36.06%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
37.41%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
40.66%
increased by 3.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2020 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3436 | 7.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1574 | 5.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7698 | 19.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0256 | 2.54** |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3436 | 7.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1574 | 5.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7698 | 19.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0256 | 2.54** |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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