V-Lab
Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
36.98%
decreased by 3.87%
1 Week
39.03%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Month
46.14%
increased by 5.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 18, 2020 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 165 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 79.5080 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1461 | 10.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 442.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1799 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
165 days
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