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Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

82.63%

decreased by 11.87%

1 Week

83.34%

decreased by 11.16%

1 Month

86.02%

decreased by 8.48%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 18, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~124 daysv = 5.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst69.1053
1.21
αARCH0.1538
10.01***
βGARCH0.9944
249.04***
νDF5.0781
3.30***

0.994

Persistence

124d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

69.1053
1.21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1538
10.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9944
249.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0781
3.30***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

124 days