V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
259.68%
decreased by 26.18%
1 Week
269.88%
decreased by 15.98%
1 Month
306.79%
increased by 20.93%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4,880.5110 | 8.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 132.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 3,764.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0027 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
297 days
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