V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
318.62%
increased by 57.09%
1 Week
330.14%
increased by 68.61%
1 Month
372.09%
increased by 110.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7,123.2293 | 2.20** |
| αARCH | 0.1067 | 33.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9978 | 1,018.15*** |
| νDF | 2.0019 |
0.998
Persistence313d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7,123.2293 | 2.20** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1067 | 33.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 1,018.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0019 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
313 days
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