V-Lab
Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
172.29%
decreased by 20.87%
1 Week
184.82%
decreased by 8.34%
1 Month
227.53%
increased by 34.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3,786.0952 | 8.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1057 | 133.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 3,525.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0033 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
285 days
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