Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
273.79%
decreased by 22.27%
1 Week
287.65%
decreased by 8.41%
1 Month
336.78%
increased by 40.72%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7,290.3480 | 8.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1063 | 132.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 4,089.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0019 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
313 days
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