Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
16.78%
1 Week
17.15%
1 Month
18.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 243 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 30.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 13.6001 | 1.71* |
| αscore | 0.0918 | 6.42*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9972 | 335.52*** |
| νDF | 30.1226 | 0.41 |
0.997
Persistence243d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 13.6001 | 1.71* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0918 | 6.42*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 335.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 30.1226 | 0.41 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
243 days
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