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Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

16.78%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

17.15%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

18.53%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2010 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 243 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 30.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~243 daysv = 30.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run13.6001
1.71*
αscore0.0918
6.42***
βpersistence0.9972
335.52***
νDF30.1226
0.41

0.997

Persistence

243d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

13.6001
1.71*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0918
6.42***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9972
335.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

30.1226
0.41

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

243 days