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V-Lab

Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

16.64%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

17.78%

increased by 0.63%

1 Month

19.28%

increased by 2.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 34% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1570
25.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7482
80.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0397
-5.02***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0029
0.91
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0300
7.07***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9698
212.81***

Persistence:

0.885

Half-life:

6 days