Vinalink Intl Freight Forwar MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.64%
1 Week
17.78%
1 Month
19.28%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 22, 2010 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 34% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1570 | 25.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7482 | 80.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0397 | -5.02*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0029 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0300 | 7.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9698 | 212.81*** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
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