V-Lab
Sequoia Logistica E Transpor Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
153.58%
decreased by 13.41%
1 Week
162.15%
decreased by 4.84%
1 Month
172.57%
increased by 5.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5454 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1818 | 3.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6110 | 6.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 1.8658 | 1.77* |
| γ2 | -2.8614 | -1.61 |
| γ3 | 1.2774 | 0.76 |
| γ4 | -0.2906 | -0.17 |
| γ5 | -1.7880 | -1.57 |
| γ6 | 5.0784 | 4.42*** |
| γ7 | -5.1525 | -2.57** |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
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