V-Lab
Sequoia Logistica E Transpor Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
157.45%
decreased by 13.64%
1 Week
166.50%
decreased by 4.59%
1 Month
177.72%
increased by 6.63%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:53 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5454 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1834 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6142 | 7.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 1.8546 | 1.72* |
| γ2 | -2.8305 | -1.57 |
| γ3 | 1.2175 | 0.72 |
| γ4 | -0.1783 | -0.11 |
| γ5 | -1.9602 | -1.77* |
| γ6 | 5.2204 | 4.83*** |
| γ7 | -5.0650 | -5.25*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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