V-Lab
Sequoia Logistica E Transpor Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
148.30%
decreased by 5.55%
1 Week
163.46%
increased by 9.61%
1 Month
180.64%
increased by 26.79%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5419 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1792 | 3.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6066 | 6.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 1.8573 | 1.81* |
| γ2 | -2.8789 | -1.66* |
| γ3 | 1.3853 | 0.81 |
| γ4 | -0.5388 | -0.30 |
| γ5 | -1.3703 | -1.06 |
| γ6 | 4.6207 | 4.54*** |
| γ7 | -4.7656 | -5.56*** |
Persistence:
0.786
Half-life:
3 days
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