V-Lab
Sequoia Logistica E Transpor Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
170.77%
increased by 35.14%
1 Week
175.46%
increased by 39.83%
1 Month
181.33%
increased by 45.70%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 03:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 7, 2020 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5447 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1817 | 3.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6111 | 6.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 1.8567 | 1.76* |
| γ2 | -2.8495 | -1.60 |
| γ3 | 1.2780 | 0.75 |
| γ4 | -0.3079 | -0.18 |
| γ5 | -1.7398 | -1.49 |
| γ6 | 4.9650 | 4.79*** |
| γ7 | -4.8755 | -5.43*** |
Persistence:
0.793
Half-life:
3 days
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