Skip to main content
V-Lab

Pilbara Gold Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

81.23%

increased by 2.83%

1 Week

87.39%

increased by 8.99%

1 Month

93.30%

increased by 14.90%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pilbara Gold Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026
Illiquid Asset
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 19% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1477
21.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5804
34.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0236
-2.12**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
1.45
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.9088
2.07**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.716

Half-life:

2 days