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Tgs Dis Ticaret As GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

165.34%

increased by 29.91%

1 Week

161.00%

increased by 25.57%

1 Month

146.36%

increased by 10.93%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Tgs Dis Ticaret As GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 7, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

26.7391
3.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2032
32.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9644
92.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0958
26.09***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days