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V-Lab

Tgs Dis Ticaret As MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

106.16%

increased by 24.75%

1 Week

88.19%

increased by 6.78%

1 Month

74.65%

decreased by 6.76%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of Tgs Dis Ticaret As MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 7, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 33% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4088
30.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2295
11.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1007
-3.87***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7454
1.57
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1654
2.19**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7860
7.57***

Persistence:

0.588

Half-life:

1 days