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Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

55.88%

increased by 1.83%

1 Week

57.95%

increased by 3.90%

1 Month

59.12%

increased by 5.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifeδ = 0.62 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.33
αARCH0.2208
1.80*
βGARCH0.3828
0.95
γleverage-0.1495
-0.31
δpower0.6219
1.07

0.560

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.33
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2208
1.80*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3828
0.95
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1495
-0.31
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6219
1.07

Persistence:

0.560

Half-life:

1 days