V-Lab
Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
55.88%
1 Week
57.95%
1 Month
59.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. The volatility power δ = 0.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.33 |
| αARCH | 0.2208 | 1.80* |
| βGARCH | 0.3828 | 0.95 |
| γleverage | -0.1495 | -0.31 |
| δpower | 0.6219 | 1.07 |
0.560
Persistence1d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2208 | 1.80* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3828 | 0.95 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1495 | -0.31 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6219 | 1.07 |
Persistence:
0.560
Half-life:
1 days
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