Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
52.83%
increased by 4.29%
1 Week
52.24%
increased by 3.70%
1 Month
51.65%
increased by 3.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1814 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5852 | 6.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1379 | -1.15 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1193 | 4.35*** |
Persistence:
0.731
Half-life:
2 days
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