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V-Lab

Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

52.83%

increased by 4.29%

1 Week

52.24%

increased by 3.70%

1 Month

51.65%

increased by 3.11%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bai-Kakaji Polymers Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
3.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1814
7.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5852
6.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1379
-1.15
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1193
4.35***

Persistence:

0.731

Half-life:

2 days