V-Lab
Helix Resources Limited Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
261.80%
decreased by 4.73%
1 Week
283.91%
increased by 17.38%
1 Month
321.65%
increased by 55.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9425 | 6.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1271 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7464 | 19.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0519 | 1.63 |
| γ2 | -0.1005 | -2.34** |
| γ3 | 0.1044 | 3.64*** |
| γ4 | -0.0887 | -2.61*** |
| γ5 | 0.0306 | 0.77 |
| γ6 | 0.0329 | 0.86 |
| γ7 | 0.0088 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
Other Helix Resources Limited Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities