Deutsche Bank AG GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
29.59%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
29.69%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
30.08%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~218 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0230 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0550 | 9.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9419 | 173.61*** |
0.997
Persistence218d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0230 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0550 | 9.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9419 | 173.61*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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