V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
24.25%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
24.41%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
25.03%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 215 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~215 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0231 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0551 | 9.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9417 | 172.98*** |
0.997
Persistence215d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 9.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9417 | 172.98*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
215 days
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