V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
30.63%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
31.10%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
32.67%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0039 | 4.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0621 | 8.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9153 | 100.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0669 | 1.94* |
| γ2 | -0.0430 | -0.79 |
| γ3 | -0.1024 | -2.69*** |
| γ4 | 0.1638 | 4.97*** |
| γ5 | -0.1504 | -4.89*** |
| γ6 | 0.1193 | 3.66*** |
| γ7 | -0.1033 | -3.07*** |
| γ8 | 0.0802 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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