Deutsche Bank AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
34.88%
increased by 0.65%
1 Week
34.95%
increased by 0.72%
1 Month
35.20%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 31 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9905 | 4.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0622 | 8.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9155 | 101.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0637 | 1.85* |
| γ2 | -0.0392 | -0.72 |
| γ3 | -0.1017 | -2.66*** |
| γ4 | 0.1597 | 4.80*** |
| γ5 | -0.1441 | -4.65*** |
| γ6 | 0.1114 | 3.40*** |
| γ7 | -0.0923 | -2.94*** |
| γ8 | 0.0575 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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