V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
31.11%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
31.39%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
32.35%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0005 | 4.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0618 | 8.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9156 | 101.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0658 | 1.92* |
| γ2 | -0.0423 | -0.78 |
| γ3 | -0.0998 | -2.63*** |
| γ4 | 0.1586 | 4.79*** |
| γ5 | -0.1437 | -4.65*** |
| γ6 | 0.1118 | 3.42*** |
| γ7 | -0.0933 | -2.98*** |
| γ8 | 0.0581 | 2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
Other Deutsche Bank AG Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities