V-Lab
Deutsche Bank AG APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.09%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
27.29%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
28.04%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 92% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0300 | 17.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0622 | 27.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9378 | 501.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2557 | 11.51*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2517 | 29.43*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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