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V-Lab

Deutsche Bank AG APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

27.09%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

27.29%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

28.04%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Bank AG APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 92% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0300
17.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0622
27.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9378
501.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2557
11.51***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2517
29.43***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days