V-Lab
Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
41.91%
1 Week
42.45%
1 Month
44.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 20, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 56% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0674 | 3.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0897 | 8.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9103 | 82.62*** |
| γleverage | -0.2097 | -2.32** |
| δpower | 1.0389 | 4.87*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0674 | 3.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0897 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9103 | 82.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2097 | -2.32** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0389 | 4.87*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
Other Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co Ltd Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities