V-Lab
Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
33.98%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
34.13%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
34.61%
decreased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 20, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2004 | 7.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0983 | 8.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8748 | 57.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0077 | -1.87* |
| γ2 | 0.0126 | 2.38** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2004 | 7.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0983 | 8.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8748 | 57.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0077 | -1.87* |
| γ2 | 0.0126 | 2.38** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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