V-Lab
Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
45.32%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
47.70%
increased by 1.64%
1 Month
49.78%
increased by 3.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 20, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1585 | 6.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7007 | 16.15*** |
| γleverage | -0.0480 | -1.66* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1037 | 1.50 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0594 | 3.09*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9300 | 36.97*** |
0.835
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1585 | 6.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7007 | 16.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0480 | -1.66* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1037 | 1.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0594 | 3.09*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9300 | 36.97*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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