Camtek Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 18th, 2026
1 Day
57.00%
1 Week
56.49%
1 Month
54.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2006 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. The volatility power δ = 1.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2609 | 2.12** |
| αARCH | 0.0570 | 3.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9117 | 51.62*** |
| γleverage | -0.1385 | -1.70* |
| δpower | 1.8169 | 5.18*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2609 | 2.12** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0570 | 3.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9117 | 51.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1385 | -1.70* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8169 | 5.18*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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