V-Lab
Camtek Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
60.21%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Week
60.22%
decreased by 1.65%
1 Month
60.04%
decreased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 18, 2006 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.0733 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8630 | 27.03*** |
| γleverage | -0.0223 | -1.19 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1055 | 0.85 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0239 | 1.26 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9633 | 29.10*** |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8630 | 27.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0223 | -1.19 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1055 | 0.85 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0239 | 1.26 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9633 | 29.10*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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