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V-Lab

Nodestream Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

131.46%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

131.53%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

131.79%

decreased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Nodestream Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 39903201 trading days (~158346.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.34 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0804
1.32
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0038
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9890
1,121.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.00
δ

power

Transformation power

2.3366
8.83***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

39903201 days