V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
131.46%
1 Week
131.53%
1 Month
131.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 39903201 trading days (~158346.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.34 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0804 | 1.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0038 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 1,121.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3366 | 8.83*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
39903201 days
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