Nodestream Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
240.62%
increased by 36.84%
1 Week
215.74%
increased by 11.96%
1 Month
195.58%
decreased by 8.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8717 | 7.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1115 | 3.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5322 | 4.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1104 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | -0.2206 | -0.54 |
| γ3 | 0.8096 | 3.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.5812 | -2.49** |
| γ5 | -0.0940 | -0.35 |
| γ6 | 0.7076 | 2.11** |
0.644
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8717 | 7.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1115 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5322 | 4.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1104 | -0.41 |
| γ2 | -0.2206 | -0.54 |
| γ3 | 0.8096 | 3.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.5812 | -2.49** |
| γ5 | -0.0940 | -0.35 |
| γ6 | 0.7076 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.644
Half-life:
2 days
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