V-Lab
Nodestream Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
170.71%
increased by 4.93%
1 Week
171.88%
increased by 6.10%
1 Month
172.77%
increased by 6.99%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8771 | 7.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5502 | 4.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1087 | -0.38 |
| γ2 | -0.2308 | -0.54 |
| γ3 | 0.7887 | 3.02*** |
| γ4 | -0.4736 | -1.86* |
| γ5 | -0.2566 | -0.89 |
| γ6 | 0.8375 | 1.82* |
Persistence:
0.659
Half-life:
2 days
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