V-Lab
D.L.S.I. Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.22%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
22.02%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
24.60%
increased by 3.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6561 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1585 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6789 | 10.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3172 | -2.08** |
| γ2 | 0.4935 | 2.38** |
| γ3 | -0.2842 | -2.20** |
| γ4 | 0.0826 | 0.63 |
| γ5 | 0.1071 | 0.93 |
| γ6 | -0.1305 | -1.03 |
| γ7 | 0.0492 | 0.28 |
| γ8 | 0.0211 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.837
Half-life:
4 days
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