V-Lab
D.L.S.I. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.68%
increased by 0.65%
1 Week
21.51%
increased by 2.48%
1 Month
24.12%
increased by 5.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6637 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1589 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6793 | 11.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3066 | -2.02** |
| γ2 | 0.4768 | 2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.2744 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 0.0772 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | 0.1101 | 0.97 |
| γ6 | -0.1330 | -1.14 |
| γ7 | 0.0518 | 0.48 |
| γ8 | 0.0144 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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