V-Lab
D.L.S.I. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
22.23%
increased by 3.04%
1 Week
23.13%
increased by 3.94%
1 Month
24.50%
increased by 5.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6650 | 3.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1585 | 4.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6797 | 11.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3047 | -2.02** |
| γ2 | 0.4741 | 2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.2735 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 0.0770 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | 0.1107 | 0.98 |
| γ6 | -0.1342 | -1.16 |
| γ7 | 0.0513 | 0.48 |
| γ8 | 0.0166 | 0.22 |
0.838
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6650 | 3.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1585 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6797 | 11.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3047 | -2.02** |
| γ2 | 0.4741 | 2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.2735 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 0.0770 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | 0.1107 | 0.98 |
| γ6 | -0.1342 | -1.16 |
| γ7 | 0.0513 | 0.48 |
| γ8 | 0.0166 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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