V-Lab
D.L.S.I. Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.17%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Week
22.39%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
24.21%
increased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6653 | 3.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.1579 | 4.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6801 | 11.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3033 | -2.01** |
| γ2 | 0.4721 | 2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.2727 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 0.0767 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | 0.1119 | 0.99 |
| γ6 | -0.1367 | -1.19 |
| γ7 | 0.0534 | 0.51 |
| γ8 | 0.0160 | 0.22 |
0.838
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6653 | 3.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1579 | 4.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6801 | 11.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.3033 | -2.01** |
| γ2 | 0.4721 | 2.30** |
| γ3 | -0.2727 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 0.0767 | 0.58 |
| γ5 | 0.1119 | 0.99 |
| γ6 | -0.1367 | -1.19 |
| γ7 | 0.0534 | 0.51 |
| γ8 | 0.0160 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities