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V-Lab
V-Lab

D.L.S.I. Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

22.29%

increased by 0.50%

1 Week

23.42%

increased by 1.63%

1 Month

26.80%

increased by 5.01%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of D.L.S.I. APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 1.72 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifeδ = 1.72 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1460
5.18***
αARCH0.1632
9.64***
βGARCH0.8156
42.73***
γleverage0.0182
0.43
δpower1.7193
8.18***

0.964

Persistence

19d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1460
5.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1632
9.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8156
42.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0182
0.43
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7193
8.18***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days