V-Lab
D.L.S.I. Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
22.29%
1 Week
23.42%
1 Month
26.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 1.72 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1460 | 5.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1632 | 9.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8156 | 42.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0182 | 0.43 |
| δpower | 1.7193 | 8.18*** |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1460 | 5.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1632 | 9.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8156 | 42.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0182 | 0.43 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7193 | 8.18*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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