V-Lab
D.L.S.I. APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
27.06%
decreased by 1.80%
1 Week
28.81%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
31.93%
increased by 3.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6025 | 2.33** |
| αARCH | 0.1712 | 3.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7012 | 14.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.1016 | 1.18 |
| δpower | 2.0801 | 4.29*** |
0.880
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6025 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1712 | 3.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7012 | 14.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1016 | 1.18 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0801 | 4.29*** |
Persistence:
0.880
Half-life:
5 days
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