V-Lab
D.L.S.I. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
119.17%
decreased by 15.50%
1 Week
130.52%
decreased by 4.15%
1 Month
151.74%
increased by 17.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.02 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 115.3634 | 1.22 |
| αARCH | 0.1129 | 5.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8940 | 10.02*** |
| νDF | 2.0158 | 147.73*** |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 115.3634 | 1.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1129 | 5.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8940 | 10.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0158 | 147.73*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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