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D.L.S.I. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

139.73%

increased by 27.06%

1 Week

145.63%

increased by 32.96%

1 Month

157.32%

increased by 44.65%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of D.L.S.I. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.02 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst112.3582
1.22
αARCH0.1135
5.22***
βGARCH0.8936
10.01***
νDF2.0163
143.95***

0.894

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

112.3582
1.22
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1135
5.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8936
10.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0163
143.95***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days