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D.L.S.I. GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

119.17%

decreased by 15.50%

1 Week

130.52%

decreased by 4.15%

1 Month

151.74%

increased by 17.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of D.L.S.I. GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2006 to Sep 18, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.02 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.02 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst115.3634
1.22
αARCH0.1129
5.22***
βGARCH0.8940
10.02***
νDF2.0158
147.73***

0.894

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

115.3634
1.22
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1129
5.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8940
10.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0158
147.73***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days