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Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

35.95%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

36.03%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

36.37%

increased by 0.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9381
4.52***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9915
10.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-3.9467
-0.22

0.992

Persistence

81d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9381
4.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9915
10.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-3.9467
-0.22

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

81 days