V-Lab
Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
35.95%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
36.03%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
36.37%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~81 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9381 | 4.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9915 | 10.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.9467 | -0.22 |
0.992
Persistence81d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9381 | 4.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 10.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.9467 | -0.22 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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