V-Lab
Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.64%
decreased by 2.16%
1 Week
28.31%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Month
28.10%
decreased by 2.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1182 | 7.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0685 | 0.89 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5907 | 1.78* |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.1399 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.591
Half-life:
1 days
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