V-Lab
Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
33.54%
1 Week
33.53%
1 Month
33.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 12.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4047 | 0.58 |
| αARCH | 0.0337 | 0.19 |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 21.46*** |
| νDF | 12.9093 | 0.03 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4047 | 0.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0337 | 0.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 21.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 12.9093 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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