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V-Lab

Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

28.64%

decreased by 2.16%

1 Week

28.31%

decreased by 2.49%

1 Month

28.10%

decreased by 2.70%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.1182
7.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0685
0.89
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5907
1.78*
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.1399
0.07

Persistence:

0.591

Half-life:

1 days