V-Lab
Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
38.71%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
38.94%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
39.82%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 593 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~593 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0418 | 0.11 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9988 | 0.38 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.999
Persistence593d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0418 | 0.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9988 | 0.38 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
593 days
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