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Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

37.88%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

37.95%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

38.20%

increased by 0.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9287
4.63***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9866
16.61***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.3441
-1.53

0.987

Persistence

51d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9287
4.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9866
16.61***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-2.3441
-1.53

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days