V-Lab
Caisse Regionale De Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
37.88%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
37.95%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
38.20%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 9, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 51 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9287 | 4.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9866 | 16.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.3441 | -1.53 |
0.987
Persistence51d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9287 | 4.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9866 | 16.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -2.3441 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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